Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: UA 1913 at 07:29 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 25–26%.

Safest bet that day UA 1913 ORD 07:29 → BDL 10:47 · 9% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 2165 ORD 19:35 → BDL 22:53 · 26% chance 15+ min late · usually 74% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1913 United	ORD 07:29	BDL 10:47	9%	3%	0.8%	no record
UA 2195 United Flight history →	ORD 11:03	BDL 14:24	14%	4%	0.7%	81%
AA 1408 American Flight history →	ORD 08:47	BDL 12:06	15%	4%	1.0%	64%
MQ 3890 Envoy	ORD 14:37	BDL 17:49	18%	5%	1.8%	no record
UA 1617 United	ORD 14:31	BDL 17:45	21%	7%	0.7%	no record
UA 1616 United	ORD 18:16	BDL 21:32	25%	8%	0.7%	no record
AA 2165 American Flight history →	ORD 19:35	BDL 22:53	26%	7%	1.1%	74%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON