tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, AA 3498 at 09:44, with a 8% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
AA 3498 American flown by Envoy Flight history → ORD 09:44 BIL 11:41 8% 2% 0.6% 93%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Billings on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Billings is 1 h behind Chicago). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → ORD 05:00 → DEN 06:41UA 2666 1h 14m Denver DEN 07:55 → BIL 09:36UA 4762 · flown by SkyWest 5h 36m 99% 91%
AmericanDetails → ORD 05:00 → DFW 07:30AA 760 3h 23m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 10:53 → BIL 13:03AA 4095 · flown by Envoy 9h 03m 99% 90%
UnitedDetails → ORD 07:05 → DEN 08:55UA 1217 2h 50m Denver DEN 11:45 → BIL 13:22UA 703 7h 17m 98% 86%
AlaskaDetails → ORD 15:43 → SEA 18:22AS 407 2h 37m Seattle SEA 20:59 → BIL 23:51AS 2457 · flown by Horizon 9h 08m 96% 86%
AlaskaDetails → ORD 05:58 → SEA 08:22AS 587 1h 47m Seattle SEA 10:09 → BIL 13:05AS 2054 · flown by Horizon 8h 07m 95% 76%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON