Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 12 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: UA 2073 at 06:56 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 24%.

Safest bet that day UA 2073 ORD 06:56 → BNA 08:33 · 7% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 1897 ORD 15:45 → BNA 17:22 · 25% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2073 United	ORD 06:56	BNA 08:33	7%	3%	0.7%	no record
AA 3973 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ORD 06:40	BNA 08:23	8%	3%	1.5%	88%
YX 3498 Republic	ORD 12:30	BNA 14:11	11%	3%	0.7%	no record
UA 2414 United Flight history →	ORD 10:37	BNA 12:29	11%	4%	0.6%	82%
UA 1674 United	ORD 08:40	BNA 10:16	13%	4%	0.6%	no record
AA 2362 American	ORD 11:32	BNA 13:16	13%	6%	0.8%	no record
OO 4917 SkyWest	ORD 08:15	BNA 09:49	18%	4%	1.2%	no record
AA 2991 American	ORD 13:40	BNA 15:22	18%	8%	0.9%	no record
UA 2142 United Flight history →	ORD 13:55	BNA 15:32	20%	8%	0.7%	69%
OO 4918 SkyWest	ORD 18:11	BNA 19:46	24%	10%	1.9%	no record
UA 739 United	ORD 18:30	BNA 20:07	24%	9%	0.7%	no record
UA 1897 United	ORD 15:45	BNA 17:22	25%	9%	0.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON