Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: United via Denver, leaving 05:00, is the safest bet: 83% chance of reaching Boise on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 70% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


UA 2139 United	ORD 08:37	BOI 11:24	13%	3%	0.6%	no record
AA 2353 American Flight history →	ORD 11:38	BOI 14:27	15%	4%	0.7%	81%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Boise on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Boise is 1 h behind Chicago). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	ORD 05:30 → ATL 08:29DL 1264	2h 02m Atlanta	ATL 10:31 → BOI 12:53DL 874	8h 23m	98%	91%
United Details →	ORD 06:00 → DEN 07:42UA 2806	3h 54m Denver	DEN 11:36 → BOI 13:35UA 2255	8h 35m	100%	88%
Delta Details →	ORD 06:55 → SEA 09:27DL 2041	3h 03m Seattle	SEA 12:30 → BOI 15:11DL 3959 · flown by SkyWest	9h 16m	99%	85%
American Details →	ORD 05:00 → DFW 07:30AA 760	3h 20m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 10:50 → BOI 13:24AA 2019	9h 24m	99%	84%
Delta Details →	ORD 07:29 → LAX 10:00DL 1556	1h 44m Los Angeles	LAX 11:44 → BOI 14:46DL 3773 · flown by SkyWest	8h 17m	95%	84%
Delta Details →	ORD 13:44 → ATL 16:54DL 2894	2h 36m Atlanta	ATL 19:30 → BOI 21:57DL 704	9h 13m	97%	83%
United Details →	ORD 05:00 → DEN 06:41UA 2666	53m Denver	DEN 07:34 → BOI 09:36UA 255	5h 36m	88%	83%
Alaska Details →	ORD 15:43 → SEA 18:22AS 407	1h 37m Seattle	SEA 19:59 → BOI 22:24AS 2034 · flown by Horizon	7h 41m	91%	78%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	ORD 12:59 → SFO 15:46UA 1097	56m San Francisco	SFO 16:42 → BOI 19:32UA 5720 · flown by SkyWest	7h 33m	70%	55%
Alaska Details →	ORD 08:05 → SEA 10:24AS 583	1h 12m Seattle	SEA 11:36 → BOI 14:07AS 2106 · flown by Horizon	7h 02m	73%	51%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON