Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 23 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: DL 2828 at 06:59 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 21–35%.

Safest bet that day DL 2828 ORD 06:59 → BOS 10:30 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 87% on time Riskiest AA 2294 ORD 13:55 → BOS 17:25 · 36% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2828 Delta Flight history →	ORD 06:59	BOS 10:30	7%	3%	0.9%	87%
UA 1186 United Flight history →	ORD 06:05	BOS 09:29	7%	3%	0.8%	92%
AA 3022 American Flight history →	ORD 06:00	BOS 09:34	9%	3%	1.3%	97%
AA 3067 American	ORD 06:57	BOS 10:30	11%	4%	1.1%	no record
UA 659 United	ORD 07:30	BOS 11:00	11%	5%	0.7%	no record
DL 2570 Delta Flight history →	ORD 10:28	BOS 13:59	15%	5%	0.8%	76%
UA 1367 United	ORD 09:05	BOS 12:35	16%	6%	0.6%	no record
AA 802 American	ORD 09:07	BOS 12:39	18%	6%	1.0%	no record
UA 1606 United Flight history →	ORD 10:30	BOS 14:07	18%	9%	0.6%	82%
B6 112 JetBlue	ORD 09:38	BOS 13:08	21%	8%	0.9%	no record
UA 1365 United	ORD 20:17	BOS 23:48	21%	9%	0.7%	no record
AA 2578 American	ORD 10:31	BOS 14:03	21%	10%	0.9%	no record
AA 1479 American Flight history →	ORD 12:09	BOS 15:59	23%	13%	0.9%	50%
DL 2646 Delta Flight history →	ORD 19:25	BOS 23:00	24%	9%	1.0%	65%
AA 1162 American	ORD 15:59	BOS 19:51	28%	16%	1.2%	no record
DL 2816 Delta Flight history →	ORD 15:19	BOS 18:59	28%	14%	0.9%	62%
AA 3107 American Flight history →	ORD 19:29	BOS 23:06	28%	11%	1.1%	56%
UA 487 United	ORD 16:01	BOS 19:45	29%	15%	0.7%	no record
UA 2401 United	ORD 13:05	BOS 16:44	30%	14%	0.7%	no record
UA 1928 United	ORD 14:14	BOS 18:00	30%	18%	0.7%	no record
UA 2331 United Flight history →	ORD 18:20	BOS 21:56	30%	13%	0.7%	59%
AA 407 American Flight history →	ORD 17:19	BOS 20:48	35%	13%	1.0%	44%
AA 2294 American	ORD 13:55	BOS 17:25	36%	18%	1.1%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON