Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: UA 265 at 06:45 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 10–26%.

Safest bet that day UA 265 ORD 06:45 → BUF 09:27 · 6% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 3013 ORD 14:36 → BUF 17:21 · 26% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


UA 265 United	ORD 06:45	BUF 09:27	6%	3%	0.6%	no record
YX 4751 Republic	ORD 08:46	BUF 11:35	10%	2%	1.2%	no record
UA 580 United	ORD 13:59	BUF 16:40	18%	10%	0.7%	no record
OO 5275 SkyWest	ORD 10:29	BUF 13:10	18%	7%	1.9%	no record
UA 1335 United Flight history →	ORD 18:00	BUF 20:41	23%	12%	0.7%	66%
AA 3013 American	ORD 14:36	BUF 17:21	26%	12%	1.6%	no record
UA 4382 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	ORD 10:25	BUF 13:13	27%	12%	2.1%	73%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON