Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 10 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: UA 1269 at 06:30 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 14–25%.

Safest bet that day UA 1269 ORD 06:30 → BWI 09:27 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest UA 1557 ORD 18:18 → BWI 21:25 · 25% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1269 United Flight history →	ORD 06:30	BWI 09:27	7%	2%	0.7%	94%
AA 3762 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ORD 07:18	BWI 10:26	8%	3%	1.2%	93%
AA 4253 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ORD 09:53	BWI 12:52	13%	3%	1.1%	78%
UA 2653 United Flight history →	ORD 10:51	BWI 13:57	13%	4%	0.6%	83%
UA 220 United	ORD 20:12	BWI 23:23	14%	7%	0.7%	no record
F9 4064 Frontier Flight history →	ORD 06:18	BWI 09:28	14%	4%	1.5%	65%
YX 4758 Republic	ORD 14:32	BWI 17:41	15%	6%	2.6%	no record
AA 4663 American flown by Republic Flight history →	ORD 18:41	BWI 21:51	20%	7%	1.5%	79%
UA 2737 United	ORD 14:57	BWI 18:00	22%	9%	0.6%	no record
UA 1557 United	ORD 18:18	BWI 21:25	25%	9%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON