Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8 looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 12–22% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day OO 5437 ORD 06:55 → CHA 09:39 · 12% chance 15+ min late Riskiest MQ 3901 ORD 13:41 → CHA 16:21 · 22% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


OO 5437 SkyWest	ORD 06:55	CHA 09:39	12%	4%	1.7%	no record
MQ 3650 Envoy	ORD 19:42	CHA 22:23	15%	6%	2.0%	no record
MQ 3901 Envoy	ORD 13:41	CHA 16:21	22%	6%	2.1%	no record
UA 4596 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	ORD 06:55	CHA 09:44	8%	0%	2.7%	92%
UA 4543 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	ORD 10:25	CHA 13:16	14%	8%	0.0%	86%
UA 4465 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	ORD 14:30	CHA 17:23	31%	9%	4.2%	69%
UA 4507 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	ORD 17:50	CHA 20:49	36%	21%	6.2%	64%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON