Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: UA 2112 at 07:23 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 21%.

Safest bet that day UA 2112 ORD 07:23 → CHS 10:49 · 9% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 4664 ORD 14:29 → CHS 17:47 · 24% chance 15+ min late · usually 76% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2112 United	ORD 07:23	CHS 10:49	9%	3%	0.7%	no record
UA 2631 United	ORD 11:00	CHS 14:26	13%	4%	0.7%	no record
AA 2154 American	ORD 10:02	CHS 13:38	14%	5%	0.8%	no record
AA 823 American	ORD 19:37	CHS 22:56	21%	7%	1.1%	no record
UA 2362 United Flight history →	ORD 18:25	CHS 21:48	21%	8%	0.8%	63%
MQ 3868 Envoy	ORD 15:48	CHS 19:00	22%	6%	1.4%	no record
UA 4664 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ORD 14:29	CHS 17:47	24%	9%	0.9%	76%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON