Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: MQ 3732 at 10:01 is the safest bet, 14% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 18–28%.

Safest bet that day MQ 3732 ORD 10:01 → CID 11:08 · 14% chance 15+ min late Riskiest OO 5544 ORD 16:05 → CID 17:17 · 28% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


MQ 3732 Envoy	ORD 10:01	CID 11:08	14%	3%	1.3%	no record
MQ 3385 Envoy	ORD 18:57	CID 20:04	18%	5%	2.2%	no record
OO 6285 SkyWest	ORD 11:50	CID 13:01	20%	6%	1.5%	no record
OO 5399 SkyWest	ORD 13:34	CID 14:46	24%	7%	1.8%	no record
OO 5544 SkyWest	ORD 16:05	CID 17:17	28%	8%	1.9%	no record
UA 4611 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	ORD 08:40	CID 10:09	18%	14%	0.0%	82%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON