Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 12 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: UA 1488 at 07:25 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 25–27%.

Safest bet that day UA 1488 ORD 07:25 → CLE 09:54 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest UA 2652 ORD 17:45 → CLE 20:13 · 27% chance 15+ min late · usually 58% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1488 United Flight history →	ORD 07:25	CLE 09:54	7%	3%	0.7%	90%
AA 6363 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ORD 06:38	CLE 09:11	14%	4%	1.4%	78%
UA 2389 United Flight history →	ORD 10:29	CLE 12:58	14%	5%	0.7%	83%
UA 1878 United Flight history →	ORD 12:55	CLE 15:25	18%	6%	0.8%	70%
OO 5480 SkyWest	ORD 09:08	CLE 11:38	18%	6%	1.3%	no record
UA 1502 United Flight history →	ORD 14:20	CLE 16:54	19%	8%	0.8%	79%
OO 4932 SkyWest	ORD 09:58	CLE 12:26	20%	6%	1.3%	no record
OO 4937 SkyWest	ORD 11:51	CLE 14:19	21%	7%	1.4%	no record
MQ 3912 Envoy	ORD 17:30	CLE 19:55	25%	7%	2.7%	no record
OO 4904 SkyWest	ORD 13:36	CLE 16:04	26%	11%	1.9%	no record
OO 5477 SkyWest	ORD 16:04	CLE 18:33	27%	10%	2.6%	no record
UA 2652 United Flight history →	ORD 17:45	CLE 20:13	27%	11%	0.8%	58%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON