Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 12 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: AA 2842 at 05:07 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 20–25%.

Safest bet that day AA 2842 ORD 05:07 → CLT 08:10 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest UA 1748 ORD 18:15 → CLT 21:29 · 25% chance 15+ min late · usually 43% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2842 American Flight history →	ORD 05:07	CLT 08:10	6%	2%	1.4%	90%
YX 3426 Republic	ORD 06:49	CLT 09:54	9%	3%	1.0%	no record
AA 1784 American Flight history →	ORD 06:30	CLT 09:37	11%	3%	1.2%	84%
UA 3450 United flown by Republic Flight history →	ORD 10:26	CLT 13:50	11%	3%	0.8%	89%
AA 2080 American Flight history →	ORD 09:00	CLT 11:59	14%	4%	1.1%	84%
YX 3518 Republic	ORD 14:17	CLT 17:39	15%	5%	1.1%	no record
AA 411 American	ORD 08:07	CLT 11:09	16%	4%	1.2%	no record
AA 3021 American	ORD 11:47	CLT 14:46	16%	5%	1.1%	no record
AA 689 American Flight history →	ORD 18:47	CLT 21:59	20%	8%	1.2%	68%
AA 1409 American Flight history →	ORD 13:21	CLT 16:20	21%	7%	1.4%	63%
AA 3188 American	ORD 16:54	CLT 19:53	21%	10%	1.6%	no record
UA 1748 United Flight history →	ORD 18:15	CLT 21:29	25%	10%	0.8%	43%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON