Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 14 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: UA 451 at 07:23 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 10–23%.

Safest bet that day UA 451 ORD 07:23 → CMH 09:54 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 87% on time Riskiest OO 5304 ORD 16:33 → CMH 18:57 · 23% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 451 United Flight history →	ORD 07:23	CMH 09:54	6%	2%	0.6%	87%
YX 3592 Republic	ORD 09:18	CMH 11:47	9%	2%	1.0%	no record
YX 3565 Republic	ORD 12:54	CMH 15:23	10%	3%	1.0%	no record
AA 3414 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ORD 07:18	CMH 09:36	10%	2%	1.2%	87%
UA 3614 United flown by Republic Flight history →	ORD 19:45	CMH 22:24	10%	4%	1.0%	73%
MQ 3815 Envoy	ORD 11:55	CMH 14:13	14%	3%	1.2%	no record
UA 2063 United	ORD 11:05	CMH 13:36	15%	5%	0.7%	no record
AA 3447 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ORD 19:36	CMH 22:10	15%	5%	1.8%	66%
AA 3542 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ORD 15:22	CMH 17:49	15%	5%	2.0%	84%
AA 6346 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ORD 10:08	CMH 12:31	16%	5%	1.6%	71%
UA 1069 United Flight history →	ORD 14:18	CMH 16:53	18%	7%	0.7%	69%
MQ 3917 Envoy	ORD 17:32	CMH 19:50	19%	4%	1.9%	no record
UA 1278 United	ORD 17:59	CMH 20:26	22%	8%	0.7%	no record
OO 5304 SkyWest	ORD 16:33	CMH 18:57	23%	7%	2.1%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON