Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 13 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: UA 1970 at 06:55 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 15–23%.

Safest bet that day UA 1970 ORD 06:55 → CVG 09:16 · 8% chance 15+ min late Riskiest OO 704 ORD 14:31 → CVG 16:52 · 26% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


UA 1970 United	ORD 06:55	CVG 09:16	8%	3%	0.8%	no record
MQ 3680 Envoy	ORD 06:58	CVG 09:12	10%	2%	1.2%	no record
AA 3690 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ORD 19:29	CVG 22:00	15%	4%	1.3%	74%
AA 3950 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ORD 11:53	CVG 14:07	16%	3%	1.0%	80%
YX 3593 Republic	ORD 16:31	CVG 18:55	17%	5%	1.5%	no record
AA 4507 American flown by Republic Flight history →	ORD 16:31	CVG 18:55	17%	5%	1.5%	93%worse than usual
OO 5215 SkyWest	ORD 08:42	CVG 11:03	17%	5%	1.6%	no record
OO 5266 SkyWest	ORD 10:45	CVG 13:06	20%	6%	1.6%	no record
OO 5521 SkyWest	ORD 12:58	CVG 15:19	22%	7%	1.7%	no record
UA 1732 United Flight history →	ORD 17:45	CVG 20:06	23%	7%	0.7%	65%
OO 704 SkyWest	ORD 14:31	CVG 16:52	26%	9%	1.6%	no record
UA 4388 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	ORD 12:59	CVG 15:30	17%	14%	2.7%	83%
UA 4445 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	ORD 16:29	CVG 19:00	29%	11%	9.7%	71%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON