Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8 looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 11–19% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day MQ 3949 ORD 09:26 → DAY 11:40 · 11% chance 15+ min late Riskiest MQ 3951 ORD 16:35 → DAY 18:58 · 19% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


MQ 3949 Envoy	ORD 09:26	DAY 11:40	11%	3%	1.3%	no record
OO 5626 SkyWest	ORD 08:44	DAY 11:03	19%	4%	1.8%	no record
MQ 3951 Envoy	ORD 16:35	DAY 18:58	19%	6%	1.8%	no record
UA 4594 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	ORD 08:40	DAY 11:04	28%	14%	1.5%	72%
UA 4589 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	ORD 21:20	DAY 23:49	31%	14%	7.2%	69%
UA 4484 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	ORD 17:51	DAY 20:22	41%	23%	4.4%	59%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON