Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 24 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: YX 4494 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 19–26%.

Safest bet that day YX 4494 ORD 06:00 → DCA 09:08 · 6% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 2769 ORD 14:55 → DCA 18:00 · 26% chance 15+ min late · usually 74% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


YX 4494 Republic	ORD 06:00	DCA 09:08	6%	2%	1.3%	no record
AA 495 American	ORD 06:57	DCA 10:06	7%	3%	1.3%	no record
UA 1077 United Flight history →	ORD 07:23	DCA 10:24	8%	4%	0.7%	92%
UA 482 United Flight history →	ORD 07:00	DCA 09:59	8%	4%	0.7%	86%
UA 1705 United Flight history →	ORD 08:00	DCA 11:06	9%	5%	0.7%	90%
AA 523 American Flight history →	ORD 09:05	DCA 12:17	12%	6%	1.1%	79%
AA 2345 American Flight history →	ORD 08:00	DCA 10:59	12%	4%	1.3%	77%
UA 202 United	ORD 09:00	DCA 12:06	13%	6%	0.6%	no record
AA 315 American	ORD 10:04	DCA 13:22	13%	7%	1.1%	no record
UA 1904 United	ORD 10:00	DCA 13:05	14%	6%	0.6%	no record
AA 1200 American Flight history →	ORD 10:36	DCA 13:45	14%	6%	1.0%	61%
UA 2668 United Flight history →	ORD 11:15	DCA 14:22	17%	7%	0.6%	69%
UA 752 United Flight history →	ORD 12:45	DCA 15:52	18%	8%	0.7%	65%
UA 2160 United Flight history →	ORD 19:45	DCA 22:54	19%	9%	0.8%	56%
UA 1314 United Flight history →	ORD 14:00	DCA 17:12	22%	9%	0.7%	56%
UA 1941 United Flight history →	ORD 15:00	DCA 18:12	23%	11%	0.8%	66%
UA 2761 United	ORD 16:57	DCA 20:02	23%	10%	0.7%	no record
AA 489 American Flight history →	ORD 17:00	DCA 20:08	23%	10%	1.2%	70%
AA 514 American	ORD 18:05	DCA 21:24	24%	11%	1.3%	no record
AA 789 American	ORD 13:18	DCA 16:25	24%	9%	1.2%	no record
UA 1369 United Flight history →	ORD 18:00	DCA 21:10	25%	11%	0.8%	50%
UA 2812 United	ORD 16:00	DCA 19:05	25%	10%	0.7%	no record
AA 1187 American Flight history →	ORD 18:50	DCA 21:59	26%	11%	1.3%	58%
AA 2769 American Flight history →	ORD 14:55	DCA 18:00	26%	10%	1.2%	74%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON