Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 19 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: UA 2666 at 05:00 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 15–23%.

Safest bet that day UA 2666 ORD 05:00 → DEN 06:41 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 98% on time Riskiest AA 1317 ORD 15:20 → DEN 17:00 · 30% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2666 United Flight history →	ORD 05:00	DEN 06:41	4%	1%	0.6%	98%
UA 2806 United Flight history →	ORD 06:00	DEN 07:42	6%	2%	0.6%	97%
UA 1217 United Flight history →	ORD 07:05	DEN 08:55	8%	3%	0.6%	92%
MQ 3964 Envoy	ORD 07:05	DEN 08:53	11%	3%	0.6%	no record
UA 329 United Flight history →	ORD 20:17	DEN 22:05	15%	5%	0.6%	75%
UA 2857 United	ORD 10:56	DEN 12:36	16%	4%	0.6%	no record
UA 318 United	ORD 08:40	DEN 10:21	17%	3%	0.6%	no record
AA 2363 American Flight history →	ORD 09:45	DEN 11:27	17%	5%	0.7%	80%
UA 2803 United Flight history →	ORD 14:33	DEN 16:31	18%	7%	0.6%	76%
AA 1277 American	ORD 12:10	DEN 14:07	18%	6%	0.7%	no record
F9 1483 Frontier Flight history →	ORD 06:26	DEN 08:13	19%	5%	1.4%	71%
UA 1974 United Flight history →	ORD 18:17	DEN 20:22	19%	6%	0.6%	58%
AA 1225 American	ORD 08:10	DEN 09:50	20%	4%	0.7%	no record
UA 2809 United	ORD 13:05	DEN 14:53	21%	7%	0.6%	no record
UA 2324 United	ORD 13:26	DEN 15:06	21%	7%	0.6%	no record
UA 2769 United Flight history →	ORD 16:12	DEN 18:13	22%	7%	0.6%	61%
UA 1882 United	ORD 16:43	DEN 18:40	23%	7%	0.6%	no record
AA 1387 American Flight history →	ORD 18:52	DEN 20:55	23%	7%	0.7%	57%
AA 1317 American	ORD 15:20	DEN 17:00	30%	8%	0.9%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON