Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 22 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: AA 760 at 05:00 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 17–33%.

Safest bet that day AA 760 ORD 05:00 → DFW 07:30 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest AA 1559 ORD 18:19 → DFW 20:56 · 33% chance 15+ min late · usually 41% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 760 American Flight history →	ORD 05:00	DFW 07:30	7%	2%	1.2%	89%
UA 539 United Flight history →	ORD 07:15	DFW 09:58	10%	4%	0.6%	82%
AA 2896 American Flight history →	ORD 06:04	DFW 08:36	11%	3%	1.1%	86%
UA 528 United Flight history →	ORD 08:45	DFW 11:29	13%	5%	0.6%	79%
UA 441 United Flight history →	ORD 10:29	DFW 13:12	14%	5%	0.6%	77%
AA 1360 American	ORD 07:15	DFW 09:45	15%	4%	1.0%	no record
F9 1341 Frontier Flight history →	ORD 06:04	DFW 08:35	16%	5%	1.8%	60%
UA 1673 United Flight history →	ORD 19:50	DFW 22:36	17%	8%	0.7%	65%
AA 1555 American Flight history →	ORD 08:30	DFW 11:04	19%	6%	1.0%	71%
UA 2290 United Flight history →	ORD 13:05	DFW 15:48	19%	7%	0.7%	76%
UA 793 United Flight history →	ORD 15:40	DFW 18:22	21%	9%	0.7%	68%
AA 3085 American	ORD 12:05	DFW 14:35	21%	7%	1.1%	no record
AA 1459 American	ORD 09:58	DFW 12:26	22%	6%	0.9%	no record
F9 3241 Frontier Flight history →	ORD 13:16	DFW 15:48	22%	10%	2.0%	72%
AA 2451 American	ORD 13:55	DFW 16:35	23%	9%	1.2%	no record
AA 1106 American Flight history →	ORD 11:02	DFW 13:30	24%	6%	1.0%	41%
UA 309 United	ORD 14:18	DFW 16:43	24%	8%	0.7%	no record
MQ 3794 Envoy	ORD 19:01	DFW 21:23	24%	5%	1.9%	no record
AA 2531 American Flight history →	ORD 15:59	DFW 18:41	26%	10%	1.5%	73%
AA 2429 American Flight history →	ORD 15:06	DFW 17:36	30%	10%	1.4%	73%
AA 2499 American Flight history →	ORD 17:32	DFW 20:02	33%	10%	1.2%	56%
AA 1559 American Flight history →	ORD 18:19	DFW 20:56	33%	10%	1.2%	41%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON