Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: UA 466 at 09:00 is the safest bet, 13% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 23–25%.

Safest bet that day UA 466 ORD 09:00 → DSM 10:22 · 13% chance 15+ min late Riskiest OO 4890 ORD 17:51 → DSM 19:13 · 25% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 466 United	ORD 09:00	DSM 10:22	13%	5%	0.6%	no record
OO 4955 SkyWest	ORD 07:24	DSM 09:02	14%	4%	1.2%	no record
UA 1658 United	ORD 13:09	DSM 14:40	18%	7%	0.7%	no record
YX 4769 Republic	ORD 15:50	DSM 17:18	19%	7%	1.5%	no record
OO 5412 SkyWest	ORD 11:10	DSM 12:33	21%	6%	1.5%	no record
UA 2836 United	ORD 16:43	DSM 18:10	23%	9%	0.7%	no record
OO 4933 SkyWest	ORD 12:28	DSM 13:50	25%	7%	1.5%	no record
OO 4890 SkyWest	ORD 17:51	DSM 19:13	25%	9%	1.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON