Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 18 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: YX 3706 at 06:54 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 19–28%.

Safest bet that day YX 3706 ORD 06:54 → DTW 09:25 · 7% chance 15+ min late Riskiest OO 4885 ORD 18:55 → DTW 21:20 · 28% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


YX 3706 Republic	ORD 06:54	DTW 09:25	7%	2%	1.1%	no record
DL 2039 Delta Flight history →	ORD 07:05	DTW 09:30	7%	2%	0.9%	87%
YX 3632 Republic	ORD 09:12	DTW 11:47	10%	2%	1.1%	no record
DL 2840 Delta	ORD 08:56	DTW 11:18	13%	3%	1.0%	no record
AA 3977 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ORD 09:45	DTW 12:05	13%	3%	1.4%	91%
AA 3980 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ORD 12:59	DTW 15:19	13%	3%	1.3%	86%
AA 6255 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ORD 07:35	DTW 10:08	14%	4%	1.3%	93%
OO 3819 SkyWest	ORD 11:18	DTW 13:43	16%	5%	1.1%	no record
UA 5756 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ORD 10:50	DTW 13:27	17%	5%	1.2%	77%
DL 1716 Delta Flight history →	ORD 14:07	DTW 16:40	17%	4%	0.9%	78%
DL 1084 Delta Flight history →	ORD 19:17	DTW 21:52	19%	4%	1.0%	69%
UA 768 United	ORD 20:12	DTW 22:35	19%	7%	0.6%	no record
MQ 3947 Envoy	ORD 17:04	DTW 19:24	20%	4%	2.0%	no record
OO 5882 SkyWest	ORD 13:14	DTW 15:49	22%	6%	1.1%	no record
DL 2358 Delta Flight history →	ORD 17:18	DTW 19:50	22%	5%	1.1%	71%
UA 2632 United	ORD 16:01	DTW 18:26	25%	7%	0.6%	no record
UA 642 United	ORD 18:10	DTW 20:35	28%	7%	0.7%	no record
OO 4885 SkyWest	ORD 18:55	DTW 21:20	28%	7%	1.8%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON