tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, YX 3634 at 10:31, with a 12% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
YX 3634 Republic ORD 10:31 ECP 12:55 12% 3% 0.8% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Panama City Beach on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → ORD 05:30 → ATL 08:29DL 1264 2h 12m Atlanta ATL 10:41 → ECP 10:48DL 3045 5h 18m 98% 91%
DeltaDetails → ORD 09:45 → ATL 12:51DL 1178 3h 10m Atlanta ATL 16:01 → ECP 16:12DL 3094 6h 27m 100% 89%
DeltaDetails → ORD 11:20 → ATL 14:25DL 1147 3h 20m Atlanta ATL 17:45 → ECP 17:55DL 3053 6h 35m 99% 88%
AmericanDetails → ORD 05:07 → CLT 08:10AA 2842 2h 42m Charlotte CLT 10:52 → ECP 11:30AA 5262 · flown by PSA 6h 23m 98% 85%
AmericanDetails → ORD 05:00 → DFW 07:30AA 760 2h 03m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 09:33 → ECP 11:38AA 3625 · flown by Envoy 6h 38m 98% 83%
UnitedDetails → ORD 08:51 → IAH 11:51UA 535 2h 39m Houston IAH 14:30 → ECP 16:23UA 4902 · flown by CommuteAir 7h 32m 99% 75%
UnitedDetails → ORD 12:40 → IAH 15:40UA 1448 2h 25m Houston IAH 18:05 → ECP 20:01UA 4043 · flown by Mesa 7h 21m 95% 74%
UnitedDetails → ORD 14:06 → IAH 16:47UA 2062 3h 14m Houston IAH 20:01 → ECP 21:58UA 4343 · flown by CommuteAir 7h 52m 95% 72%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → ORD 16:05 → IAH 19:10UA 714 51m Houston IAH 20:01 → ECP 21:58UA 4343 · flown by CommuteAir 5h 53m 70% 53%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON