Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: American via DFW, leaving 05:00, is the safest bet: 73% chance of reaching El Paso on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 63% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


YX 3631 Republic	ORD 16:03	ELP 18:44	22%	6%	0.9%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach El Paso on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (El Paso is 1 h behind Chicago). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	ORD 05:30 → ATL 08:29DL 1264	3h 46m Atlanta	ATL 12:15 → ELP 13:20DL 1002	8h 50m	99%	87%
United Details →	ORD 06:00 → DEN 07:42UA 2806	3h 44m Denver	DEN 11:26 → ELP 13:29UA 2128	8h 29m	100%	85%
American Details →	ORD 05:00 → DFW 07:30AA 760	3h 16m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 10:46 → ELP 11:41AA 1658	7h 41m	99%	79%
American Details →	ORD 09:00 → LAX 11:21AA 1979	3h 05m Los Angeles	LAX 14:26 → ELP 17:35AA 6453 · flown by SkyWest	9h 35m	98%	79%
United Details →	ORD 12:40 → IAH 15:40UA 1448	1h 18m Houston	IAH 16:58 → ELP 18:02UA 3983 · flown by Mesa	6h 22m	93%	78%
Delta Details →	ORD 13:44 → ATL 16:54DL 2894	2h 45m Atlanta	ATL 19:39 → ELP 20:50DL 1713	8h 06m	98%	78%
United Details →	ORD 16:05 → IAH 19:10UA 714	2h 30m Houston	IAH 21:40 → ELP 22:44UA 4010 · flown by Mesa	7h 39m	94%	77%
United Details →	ORD 07:35 → IAH 10:36UA 1231	3h 44m Houston	IAH 14:20 → ELP 15:25UA 4275 · flown by CommuteAir	8h 50m	99%	76%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	ORD 16:05 → IAH 19:10UA 714	47m Houston	IAH 19:57 → ELP 21:01UA 4009 · flown by Mesa	5h 56m	63%	50%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON