Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, UA 2427 at 09:05, with a 16% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


UA 2427 United Flight history →	ORD 09:05	EUG 11:35	16%	4%	0.6%	86%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Eugene on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Eugene is 2 h behind Chicago). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Alaska Details →	ORD 17:42 → SEA 20:21AS 337	2h 28m Seattle	SEA 22:49 → EUG 23:59AS 2047 · flown by Horizon	8h 17m	95%	85%
United Details →	ORD 06:00 → DEN 07:42UA 2806	3h 33m Denver	DEN 11:15 → EUG 12:57UA 318	8h 57m	100%	83%
Delta Details →	ORD 06:55 → SEA 09:27DL 2041	2h 03m Seattle	SEA 11:30 → EUG 12:58DL 4149 · flown by SkyWest	8h 03m	98%	83%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON