Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 15 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: UA 2759 at 05:00 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 39–42%.

Safest bet that day UA 2759 ORD 05:00 → EWR 08:10 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 47% on time Riskiest UA 249 ORD 16:02 → EWR 19:10 · 42% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2759 United Flight history →	ORD 05:00	EWR 08:10	8%	3%	2.0%	47%
UA 1027 United	ORD 06:00	EWR 09:12	9%	4%	1.6%	no record
UA 1273 United	ORD 07:30	EWR 10:41	12%	5%	1.2%	no record
AA 699 American	ORD 06:41	EWR 09:54	13%	4%	2.3%	no record
UA 2238 United	ORD 08:59	EWR 12:10	16%	6%	1.2%	no record
UA 1856 United Flight history →	ORD 10:51	EWR 14:17	19%	11%	1.2%	80%
UA 606 United Flight history →	ORD 12:11	EWR 15:39	19%	12%	1.2%	78%
AA 2416 American	ORD 10:20	EWR 13:49	22%	10%	2.5%	no record
UA 2466 United	ORD 14:14	EWR 17:38	35%	19%	1.5%	no record
UA 2790 United	ORD 18:02	EWR 21:13	39%	17%	1.7%	no record
UA 1236 United	ORD 15:02	EWR 18:13	39%	17%	1.5%	no record
UA 1630 United Flight history →	ORD 17:05	EWR 20:13	40%	16%	1.4%	70%
AA 1936 American Flight history →	ORD 13:10	EWR 16:30	40%	18%	3.0%	65%
AA 3253 American Flight history →	ORD 17:36	EWR 21:00	41%	19%	2.7%	47%
UA 249 United	ORD 16:02	EWR 19:10	42%	17%	1.4%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON