Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 09:45, is the safest bet: 86% chance of reaching Key West on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Key West on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Key West is 1 h ahead of Chicago). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	ORD 09:45 → ATL 12:51DL 1178	2h 34m Atlanta	ATL 15:25 → EYW 17:23DL 2168	6h 38m	99%	86%
Delta Details →	ORD 11:20 → ATL 14:25DL 1147	3h 33m Atlanta	ATL 17:58 → EYW 19:56DL 2815	7h 36m	99%	86%
Delta Details →	ORD 05:30 → ATL 08:29DL 1264	3h 01m Atlanta	ATL 11:30 → EYW 13:23DL 1472	6h 53m	99%	85%
American Details →	ORD 06:00 → MIA 10:04AA 2452	2h 27m Miami	MIA 12:31 → EYW 13:39AA 3577 · flown by Envoy	6h 39m	100%	84%
American Details →	ORD 05:07 → CLT 08:10AA 2842	2h 56m Charlotte	CLT 11:06 → EYW 13:36AA 1816	7h 29m	98%	84%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON