Thursday, October 8 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 1:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: Delta via Seattle, leaving 06:55, is the safest bet: 79% chance of reaching Fairbanks on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Ranked by chance you reach Fairbanks on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Fairbanks is 3 h behind Chicago). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	ORD 06:55 → SEA 09:27DL 2041	1h 18m Seattle	SEA 10:45 → FAI 13:42DL 1061	9h 47m	96%	79%
Alaska Details →	ORD 05:58 → SEA 08:21AS 587	3h 44m Seattle	SEA 12:05 → FAI 14:54AS 230	11h 56m	99%	73%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON