Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 4:00 PM ET · 9 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: UA 1421 at 07:00 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 25–27%.

Safest bet that day UA 1421 ORD 07:00 → FLL 11:13 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest B6 864 ORD 14:35 → FLL 18:49 · 35% chance 15+ min late · usually 67% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1421 United Flight history →	ORD 07:00	FLL 11:13	9%	3%	0.7%	91%
AA 1424 American Flight history →	ORD 06:54	FLL 11:02	12%	4%	0.8%	77%
UA 279 United Flight history →	ORD 10:59	FLL 15:13	18%	5%	0.7%	76%
B6 664 JetBlue Flight history →	ORD 07:00	FLL 11:14	18%	6%	1.2%	89%
UA 1294 United	ORD 12:29	FLL 16:39	20%	7%	0.7%	no record
F9 2205 Frontier Flight history →	ORD 08:05	FLL 12:22	21%	7%	1.2%	68%
UA 463 United	ORD 17:45	FLL 21:51	25%	9%	0.8%	no record
AA 2881 American Flight history →	ORD 17:05	FLL 21:13	27%	9%	1.2%	62%
B6 864 JetBlue Flight history →	ORD 14:35	FLL 18:49	35%	12%	1.4%	67%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON