Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8 looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 19–29% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day OO 4991 ORD 09:45 → FSD 11:30 · 19% chance 15+ min late Riskiest OO 5359 ORD 16:06 → FSD 17:50 · 29% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


OO 4991 SkyWest	ORD 09:45	FSD 11:30	19%	7%	1.0%	no record
OO 5645 SkyWest	ORD 12:43	FSD 14:27	21%	8%	1.0%	no record
OO 4992 SkyWest	ORD 16:42	FSD 18:35	24%	11%	1.8%	no record
OO 5359 SkyWest	ORD 16:06	FSD 17:50	29%	11%	1.5%	no record
UA 4443 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	ORD 12:40	FSD 14:32	13%	9%	1.4%	87%
UA 4462 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	ORD 08:40	FSD 10:41	17%	4%	0.0%	83%
UA 4404 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	ORD 16:00	FSD 17:53	38%	20%	5.4%	62%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON