Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 14 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: OO 5784 at 06:04 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 16–26%.

Safest bet that day OO 5784 ORD 06:04 → GRR 08:08 · 11% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 5250 ORD 16:03 → GRR 18:07 · 26% chance 15+ min late · usually 58% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


OO 5784 SkyWest	ORD 06:04	GRR 08:08	11%	4%	2.5%	no record
YX 4780 Republic	ORD 11:55	GRR 14:04	12%	4%	1.5%	no record
UA 1297 United Flight history →	ORD 10:37	GRR 12:50	13%	5%	0.7%	89%
AA 6365 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ORD 07:24	GRR 09:35	14%	4%	2.1%	50%
UA 2751 United	ORD 12:58	GRR 15:13	15%	6%	0.7%	no record
AA 4729 American flown by Republic Flight history →	ORD 17:14	GRR 19:24	16%	7%	3.0%	62%
OO 5568 SkyWest	ORD 09:10	GRR 11:14	18%	4%	1.6%	no record
MQ 3455 Envoy	ORD 13:23	GRR 15:23	18%	5%	2.7%	no record
UA 2472 United	ORD 20:12	GRR 22:18	20%	10%	0.7%	no record
OO 5656 SkyWest	ORD 17:54	GRR 19:58	23%	8%	2.7%	no record
OO 5567 SkyWest	ORD 15:04	GRR 17:09	24%	10%	3.6%	no record
UA 5250 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ORD 16:03	GRR 18:07	26%	11%	3.3%	58%
UA 4598 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	ORD 12:40	GRR 14:55	22%	15%	0.0%	78%
UA 4592 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	ORD 05:59	GRR 08:07	23%	13%	0.0%	77%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON