Thursday, October 8 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 05:30, is the safest bet: 76% chance of reaching Honolulu on time.

Nonstops that day


UA 219 United Flight history →	ORD 10:24	HNL 14:14	30%	9%	0.8%	79%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Honolulu on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Honolulu is 5 h behind Chicago). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	ORD 05:30 → ATL 08:29DL 1264	1h 21m Atlanta	ATL 09:50 → HNL 13:20DL 837	12h 50m	98%	76%
Delta Details →	ORD 07:29 → LAX 10:00DL 1556	3h 55m Los Angeles	LAX 13:55 → HNL 16:43DL 465	14h 14m	100%	75%
Delta Details →	ORD 07:05 → DTW 09:30DL 2039	1h 00m Detroit	DTW 10:30 → HNL 14:07DL 307	12h 02m	95%	73%
American Details →	ORD 10:06 → LAX 12:42AA 1979	2h 13m Los Angeles	LAX 14:55 → HNL 17:57AA 143	12h 51m	97%	72%
American Details →	ORD 12:13 → LAX 14:38AA 3008	2h 46m Los Angeles	LAX 17:24 → HNL 20:25AA 297	13h 12m	96%	72%
United Details →	ORD 07:00 → LAX 09:33UA 2361	3h 43m Los Angeles	LAX 13:16 → HNL 16:08UA 1224	14h 08m	100%	72%
United Details →	ORD 11:00 → SFO 13:55UA 543	2h 50m San Francisco	SFO 16:45 → HNL 19:25UA 1509	13h 25m	96%	71%
Delta Details →	ORD 07:45 → SLC 10:15DL 2231	1h 30m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:45 → HNL 14:19DL 316	11h 34m	96%	70%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON