Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8 looks like a normal day here: all 5 nonstops are 11–17% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 3812 ORD 08:10 → HPN 11:29 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 83% on time Riskiest AA 4112 ORD 13:55 → HPN 17:15 · 17% chance 15+ min late · usually 74% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 3812 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ORD 08:10	HPN 11:29	11%	3%	1.5%	83%
AA 3752 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ORD 19:39	HPN 22:59	15%	5%	1.7%	78%
AA 4200 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ORD 12:41	HPN 15:59	15%	4%	1.5%	78%
AA 3499 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ORD 18:30	HPN 21:58	17%	6%	1.8%	75%
AA 4112 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ORD 13:55	HPN 17:15	17%	6%	2.0%	74%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON