Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, AA 6352 at 09:40, with a 18% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 6352 ORD 09:40 → HSV 11:24 · 18% chance 15+ min late · usually 80% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


AA 6352 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ORD 09:40	HSV 11:24	18%	6%	1.3%	80%
UA 4570 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	ORD 10:25	HSV 12:22	25%	4%	0.0%	75%
UA 4500 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	ORD 19:52	HSV 21:53	27%	13%	6.9%	73%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON