Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: UA 2277 at 08:40 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 12–20%.

Safest bet that day UA 2277 ORD 08:40 → IAD 11:52 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest UA 2202 ORD 18:12 → IAD 21:22 · 20% chance 15+ min late · usually 57% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2277 United Flight history →	ORD 08:40	IAD 11:52	10%	3%	0.6%	92%
UA 304 United	ORD 20:14	IAD 23:15	12%	6%	0.6%	no record
UA 1486 United	ORD 10:52	IAD 13:49	14%	5%	0.6%	no record
UA 1128 United	ORD 12:55	IAD 15:53	16%	5%	0.6%	no record
UA 3751 United	ORD 17:00	IAD 20:06	16%	7%	0.6%	no record
UA 587 United Flight history →	ORD 14:31	IAD 17:27	19%	7%	0.6%	73%
UA 2202 United Flight history →	ORD 18:12	IAD 21:22	20%	8%	0.6%	57%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON