Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 17 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: UA 1231 at 07:35 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 20–33%.

Safest bet that day UA 1231 ORD 07:35 → IAH 10:36 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest AA 2243 ORD 15:23 → IAH 18:07 · 35% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1231 United Flight history →	ORD 07:35	IAH 10:36	8%	3%	0.6%	91%
UA 1172 United	ORD 05:35	IAH 08:12	10%	2%	0.6%	no record
UA 2228 United	ORD 06:30	IAH 09:10	11%	3%	0.6%	no record
UA 535 United Flight history →	ORD 08:51	IAH 11:51	13%	4%	0.6%	80%
UA 1448 United Flight history →	ORD 12:40	IAH 15:40	14%	5%	0.6%	89%
AA 2504 American Flight history →	ORD 06:51	IAH 09:29	16%	4%	0.8%	75%
OO 6099 SkyWest	ORD 08:25	IAH 11:22	19%	6%	0.7%	no record
UA 2767 United	ORD 10:32	IAH 13:13	20%	6%	0.6%	no record
UA 714 United Flight history →	ORD 16:05	IAH 19:10	20%	8%	0.7%	74%
UA 1921 United	ORD 18:16	IAH 21:08	22%	9%	0.7%	no record
UA 2062 United Flight history →	ORD 14:06	IAH 16:47	23%	8%	0.6%	76%
F9 3135 Frontier Flight history →	ORD 14:59	IAH 17:45	26%	12%	1.3%	78%
UA 2788 United	ORD 18:30	IAH 21:10	27%	9%	0.7%	no record
AA 3322 American Flight history →	ORD 10:40	IAH 13:19	28%	6%	0.8%	86%worse than usual
AA 2302 American	ORD 13:23	IAH 16:03	32%	10%	1.0%	no record
AA 1496 American	ORD 17:00	IAH 19:44	33%	10%	1.1%	no record
AA 2243 American	ORD 15:23	IAH 18:07	35%	11%	1.1%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON