Thursday, October 8 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 2:00 AM ET · 6 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: UA 4809 at 08:52 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 12–19%.

Safest bet that day UA 4809 ORD 08:52 → ICT 11:12 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 77% on time Riskiest OO 5001 ORD 15:25 → ICT 17:25 · 22% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 15% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 13% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 4809 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ORD 08:52	ICT 11:12	9%	3%	0.6%	77%
MQ 3538 Envoy	ORD 20:20	ICT 22:18	12%	4%	0.7%	no record
OO 4999 SkyWest	ORD 10:02	ICT 12:02	12%	4%	0.6%	no record
G7 4577 GoJet	ORD 12:46	ICT 14:45	13%	5%	1.2%	no record
G7 4553 GoJet	ORD 16:03	ICT 18:03	19%	5%	1.3%	no record
OO 5001 SkyWest	ORD 15:25	ICT 17:25	22%	6%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON