Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 11–16% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


AA 3970 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ORD 08:49	ILM 12:12	11%	2%	0.8%	93%
MQ 4020 Envoy	ORD 14:01	ILM 17:21	16%	5%	1.0%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Wilmington on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Wilmington is 1 h ahead of Chicago). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	ORD 05:30 → ATL 08:29DL 1264	3h 46m Atlanta	ATL 12:15 → ILM 13:43DL 731	7h 13m	99%	93%
Delta Details →	ORD 09:45 → ATL 12:51DL 1178	3h 37m Atlanta	ATL 16:28 → ILM 18:03DL 1292	7h 18m	100%	89%
American Details →	ORD 06:30 → CLT 09:37AA 1784	2h 36m Charlotte	CLT 12:13 → ILM 13:19AA 5416 · flown by PSA	5h 49m	99%	86%
American Details →	ORD 05:07 → CLT 08:10AA 2842	3h 05m Charlotte	CLT 11:15 → ILM 12:33AA 5822 · flown by Piedmont	6h 26m	99%	84%
American Details →	ORD 06:28 → PHL 09:48AA 471	3h 24m Philadelphia	PHL 13:12 → ILM 14:59AA 6133 · flown by Piedmont	7h 29m	99%	80%
American Details →	ORD 09:00 → CLT 11:59AA 2080	1h 41m Charlotte	CLT 13:40 → ILM 14:51AA 2413	4h 51m	93%	78%
American Details →	ORD 05:00 → PHL 08:05AA 2970	2h 35m Philadelphia	PHL 10:40 → ILM 12:28AA 5978 · flown by Piedmont	6h 28m	96%	78%
American Details →	ORD 08:00 → DCA 10:59AA 2345	2h 34m Washington	DCA 13:33 → ILM 15:04AA 5313 · flown by PSA	6h 04m	97%	77%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON