Thursday, October 8 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 10:00 AM ET · 13 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: YX 4547 at 06:45 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 6–21%.

Safest bet that day YX 4547 ORD 06:45 → IND 08:59 · 4% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 2418 ORD 17:13 → IND 19:37 · 21% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 9% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 9% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


YX 4547 Republic	ORD 06:45	IND 08:59	4%	1%	0.6%	no record
UA 3550 United flown by Republic Flight history →	ORD 08:40	IND 10:54	5%	2%	0.6%	88%
AA 4713 American flown by Republic Flight history →	ORD 11:45	IND 13:59	6%	2%	0.6%	87%
UA 3702 United flown by Republic Flight history →	ORD 12:47	IND 15:03	6%	2%	0.6%	81%
UA 3707 United flown by Republic Flight history →	ORD 20:12	IND 22:31	6%	3%	0.6%	76%
OO 5582 SkyWest	ORD 06:02	IND 08:13	9%	3%	0.6%	no record
AA 3907 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ORD 08:11	IND 10:16	9%	2%	0.6%	91%
UA 3628 United flown by Republic Flight history →	ORD 17:45	IND 19:59	10%	3%	0.6%	76%
UA 473 United	ORD 10:25	IND 12:37	10%	3%	0.5%	no record
YX 3499 Republic	ORD 16:02	IND 18:13	11%	2%	0.6%	no record
AA 625 American	ORD 10:04	IND 12:18	11%	4%	0.8%	no record
UA 1718 United	ORD 14:16	IND 16:28	14%	5%	0.5%	no record
AA 2418 American	ORD 17:13	IND 19:37	21%	7%	0.8%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON