Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: OO 5604 at 07:33 is the safest bet, 13% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 23–24%.

Safest bet that day OO 5604 ORD 07:33 → JAX 11:16 · 13% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 3173 ORD 19:08 → JAX 22:37 · 24% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


OO 5604 SkyWest	ORD 07:33	JAX 11:16	13%	5%	1.0%	no record
YX 4459 Republic	ORD 08:19	JAX 11:50	13%	2%	11.2%	no record
UA 1113 United	ORD 10:37	JAX 14:14	16%	4%	1.0%	no record
AA 3486 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ORD 14:19	JAX 17:41	21%	5%	1.8%	80%
OO 5632 SkyWest	ORD 18:09	JAX 21:37	23%	9%	1.3%	no record
UA 1284 United	ORD 16:01	JAX 19:33	24%	9%	0.7%	no record
AA 3173 American	ORD 19:08	JAX 22:37	24%	9%	2.0%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON