Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 9 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: YX 5662 at 06:05 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 10–33%.

Safest bet that day YX 5662 ORD 06:05 → JFK 09:22 · 8% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 2224 ORD 16:01 → JFK 19:13 · 33% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


YX 5662 Republic	ORD 06:05	JFK 09:22	8%	3%	1.8%	no record
AA 4590 American flown by Republic Flight history →	ORD 07:45	JFK 11:02	10%	3%	1.2%	70%
B6 1006 JetBlue	ORD 10:58	JFK 14:07	25%	8%	1.8%	no record
AA 3225 American	ORD 11:36	JFK 14:48	26%	9%	1.7%	no record
AA 2485 American Flight history →	ORD 13:46	JFK 17:14	29%	11%	2.6%	65%
AA 2224 American	ORD 16:01	JFK 19:13	33%	11%	2.5%	no record
DL 4725 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	ORD 10:05	JFK 13:30	27%	16%	6.2%	73%
DL 5035 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	ORD 13:00	JFK 16:37	29%	14%	11.6%	71%
DL 4783 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	ORD 18:00	JFK 21:40	51%	22%	23.6%	49%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON