Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 11 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: UA 574 at 07:11 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 24–32%.

Safest bet that day UA 574 ORD 07:11 → LAS 09:19 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 97% on time Riskiest AA 3292 ORD 17:31 → LAS 19:29 · 32% chance 15+ min late · usually 58% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 574 United Flight history →	ORD 07:11	LAS 09:19	8%	3%	0.6%	97%
AA 2169 American	ORD 06:55	LAS 08:57	13%	4%	1.1%	no record
UA 2811 United	ORD 09:42	LAS 11:44	16%	4%	0.6%	no record
UA 1803 United	ORD 10:52	LAS 12:46	16%	5%	0.6%	no record
UA 1875 United Flight history →	ORD 15:54	LAS 17:57	24%	9%	0.6%	75%
UA 365 United	ORD 16:58	LAS 19:04	24%	9%	0.6%	no record
UA 704 United	ORD 13:30	LAS 15:24	24%	7%	0.8%	no record
AA 1497 American	ORD 10:12	LAS 12:09	27%	7%	1.1%	no record
AA 1475 American	ORD 13:56	LAS 16:08	28%	11%	1.8%	no record
UA 1703 United	ORD 18:20	LAS 20:06	29%	10%	0.6%	no record
AA 3292 American Flight history →	ORD 17:31	LAS 19:29	32%	12%	1.4%	58%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON