Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 33 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: DL 2767 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 22–45%.

Safest bet that day DL 2767 ORD 06:00 → LGA 09:09 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest AA 673 ORD 16:51 → LGA 20:08 · 45% chance 15+ min late · usually 47% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2767 Delta Flight history →	ORD 06:00	LGA 09:09	8%	3%	1.8%	92%
UA 2617 United Flight history →	ORD 06:00	LGA 09:11	10%	3%	1.8%	89%
AA 1264 American Flight history →	ORD 06:02	LGA 09:21	11%	3%	2.3%	62%
DL 2633 Delta Flight history →	ORD 07:00	LGA 10:14	13%	3%	2.1%	77%
UA 1657 United Flight history →	ORD 07:00	LGA 10:17	14%	5%	1.7%	82%
AA 2723 American Flight history →	ORD 07:00	LGA 10:16	14%	4%	2.4%	79%
UA 2092 United Flight history →	ORD 08:00	LGA 11:17	20%	5%	1.4%	86%
DL 1642 Delta	ORD 09:32	LGA 12:44	20%	4%	1.5%	no record
AA 2941 American	ORD 08:13	LGA 11:32	21%	5%	2.2%	no record
UA 2827 United	ORD 20:12	LGA 23:34	22%	9%	1.3%	no record
UA 669 United Flight history →	ORD 10:03	LGA 13:26	23%	9%	1.3%	82%
AA 3128 American Flight history →	ORD 10:22	LGA 13:48	23%	8%	1.8%	71%
DL 2917 Delta Flight history →	ORD 10:30	LGA 13:48	23%	7%	1.8%	72%
DL 2985 Delta Flight history →	ORD 11:30	LGA 15:00	23%	7%	1.8%	78%
UA 1258 United Flight history →	ORD 08:59	LGA 12:15	26%	7%	1.3%	76%
UA 529 United	ORD 11:00	LGA 14:15	26%	11%	1.3%	no record
UA 786 United	ORD 12:19	LGA 15:41	27%	10%	1.2%	no record
AA 903 American	ORD 11:31	LGA 14:49	27%	10%	1.8%	no record
DL 1390 Delta Flight history →	ORD 19:05	LGA 22:34	30%	12%	1.7%	64%
AA 3163 American Flight history →	ORD 12:56	LGA 16:26	34%	11%	1.6%	68%
AA 512 American	ORD 13:54	LGA 17:24	37%	13%	2.0%	no record
UA 2605 United Flight history →	ORD 18:25	LGA 21:54	37%	17%	1.3%	54%
UA 2189 United Flight history →	ORD 13:00	LGA 16:22	38%	13%	1.6%	65%
UA 1821 United Flight history →	ORD 14:00	LGA 17:22	38%	15%	1.8%	65%
UA 456 United	ORD 17:26	LGA 20:48	39%	16%	1.3%	no record
DL 1631 Delta	ORD 14:32	LGA 17:41	39%	12%	2.2%	no record
DL 2226 Delta Flight history →	ORD 17:40	LGA 20:50	41%	14%	1.7%	57%
UA 511 United	ORD 16:00	LGA 19:15	42%	17%	1.4%	no record
UA 2133 United	ORD 15:00	LGA 18:15	42%	15%	1.5%	no record
AA 866 American	ORD 15:12	LGA 18:29	43%	15%	2.2%	no record
AA 774 American Flight history →	ORD 18:11	LGA 21:29	44%	16%	1.8%	58%
UA 2458 United Flight history →	ORD 18:00	LGA 21:15	44%	17%	1.3%	46%
AA 673 American Flight history →	ORD 16:51	LGA 20:08	45%	17%	1.9%	47%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON