Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 12 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: AA 6349 at 06:55 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 22–23%.

Safest bet that day AA 6349 ORD 06:55 → MCI 08:30 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 95% on time Riskiest OO 5644 ORD 14:20 → MCI 15:57 · 24% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 6349 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ORD 06:55	MCI 08:30	11%	3%	1.6%	95%
OO 5717 SkyWest	ORD 07:19	MCI 08:56	12%	3%	1.5%	no record
UA 1764 United	ORD 08:45	MCI 10:22	14%	4%	0.6%	no record
UA 561 United Flight history →	ORD 12:40	MCI 14:20	14%	6%	0.7%	80%
MQ 3545 Envoy	ORD 12:18	MCI 13:58	16%	4%	1.7%	no record
MQ 3764 Envoy	ORD 13:38	MCI 15:16	17%	5%	2.1%	no record
UA 5997 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ORD 10:37	MCI 12:14	17%	5%	1.4%	89%
AA 6215 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ORD 10:00	MCI 11:35	17%	5%	1.7%	57%
OO 5712 SkyWest	ORD 18:22	MCI 20:12	22%	9%	1.9%	no record
UA 664 United Flight history →	ORD 15:52	MCI 17:36	22%	9%	0.7%	68%
OO 6304 SkyWest	ORD 17:27	MCI 19:12	23%	10%	2.0%	no record
OO 5644 SkyWest	ORD 14:20	MCI 15:57	24%	7%	1.8%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON