Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 13 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: UA 2280 at 07:20 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 20–33%.

Safest bet that day UA 2280 ORD 07:20 → MCO 11:15 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest AA 1247 ORD 15:08 → MCO 18:50 · 34% chance 15+ min late · usually 62% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2280 United Flight history →	ORD 07:20	MCO 11:15	8%	3%	0.7%	89%
UA 1643 United Flight history →	ORD 09:12	MCO 13:13	12%	4%	0.6%	85%
AA 1564 American	ORD 07:11	MCO 11:05	13%	3%	0.9%	no record
UA 2008 United Flight history →	ORD 11:00	MCO 15:03	16%	6%	0.7%	75%
AA 3293 American	ORD 10:38	MCO 14:21	20%	6%	0.9%	no record
F9 3044 Frontier Flight history →	ORD 17:13	MCO 21:25	20%	10%	1.6%	73%
UA 2620 United	ORD 12:53	MCO 16:37	21%	9%	1.6%	no record
UA 2654 United	ORD 14:28	MCO 18:12	23%	9%	1.8%	no record
UA 1929 United	ORD 16:01	MCO 19:52	24%	10%	0.8%	no record
AA 486 American Flight history →	ORD 12:09	MCO 16:04	25%	9%	1.4%	46%
UA 2294 United	ORD 18:15	MCO 21:59	28%	11%	0.8%	no record
AA 3176 American Flight history →	ORD 18:45	MCO 22:40	33%	14%	1.4%	53%
AA 1247 American Flight history →	ORD 15:08	MCO 18:50	34%	12%	2.5%	62%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON