Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: UA 5593 at 09:00 is the safest bet, 13% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 16–24%.

Safest bet that day UA 5593 ORD 09:00 → MEM 11:05 · 13% chance 15+ min late · usually 78% on time Riskiest OO 6042 ORD 15:44 → MEM 17:38 · 24% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 5593 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ORD 09:00	MEM 11:05	13%	4%	0.7%	78%
AA 3959 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ORD 08:11	MEM 09:54	16%	2%	1.1%	95%worse than usual
UA 5414 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ORD 12:40	MEM 14:42	17%	6%	0.7%	72%
YX 4594 Republic	ORD 16:03	MEM 17:57	18%	5%	1.7%	no record
OO 6042 SkyWest	ORD 15:44	MEM 17:38	24%	10%	0.8%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON