Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 13–19% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


AA 3921 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ORD 08:09	MHT 11:26	13%	3%	1.0%	78%
AA 3720 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ORD 14:10	MHT 17:37	19%	4%	1.3%	78%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Manchester on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Manchester is 1 h ahead of Chicago). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	ORD 06:28 → PHL 09:48AA 471	3h 07m Philadelphia	PHL 12:55 → MHT 14:29AA 5840 · flown by Piedmont	7h 01m	99%	86%
American Details →	ORD 15:02 → PHL 18:18AA 2840	3h 42m Philadelphia	PHL 22:00 → MHT 23:38AA 5966 · flown by Piedmont	7h 36m	94%	77%
American Details →	ORD 09:05 → DCA 12:17AA 523	2h 39m Washington	DCA 14:56 → MHT 16:40AA 5295 · flown by PSA	6h 35m	98%	71%
American Details →	ORD 11:40 → PHL 14:54AA 1743	2h 36m Philadelphia	PHL 17:30 → MHT 19:06AA 5942 · flown by Piedmont	6h 26m	98%	55%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	ORD 18:12 → IAD 21:22UA 2202	48m Dulles	IAD 22:10 → MHT 23:59UA 4270 · flown by CommuteAir	4h 47m	73%	58%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON