Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 11 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: AA 2984 at 05:00 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 25–33%.

Safest bet that day AA 2984 ORD 05:00 → MIA 09:09 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest AA 1431 ORD 14:31 → MIA 18:36 · 34% chance 15+ min late · usually 77% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2984 American Flight history →	ORD 05:00	MIA 09:09	6%	2%	1.2%	94%
AA 2452 American Flight history →	ORD 06:00	MIA 10:04	11%	2%	0.9%	96%
UA 1358 United Flight history →	ORD 07:00	MIA 11:24	13%	3%	0.7%	85%
AA 1875 American Flight history →	ORD 07:10	MIA 11:34	14%	3%	0.9%	88%
AA 1250 American Flight history →	ORD 08:30	MIA 12:45	21%	3%	1.0%	75%
UA 1620 United Flight history →	ORD 10:33	MIA 14:57	22%	6%	0.7%	77%
AA 2689 American	ORD 10:06	MIA 14:10	22%	5%	0.9%	no record
AA 1159 American	ORD 19:11	MIA 23:35	25%	9%	1.6%	no record
AA 2323 American Flight history →	ORD 16:44	MIA 21:11	29%	11%	1.8%	61%
AA 3040 American	ORD 17:30	MIA 21:38	33%	10%	1.8%	no record
AA 1431 American Flight history →	ORD 14:31	MIA 18:36	34%	9%	1.1%	77%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON