Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 13 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: OO 4984 at 07:21 is the safest bet, 14% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 23–30%.

Safest bet that day OO 4984 ORD 07:21 → MKE 08:25 · 14% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 5262 ORD 16:45 → MKE 17:35 · 30% chance 15+ min late · usually 76% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


OO 4984 SkyWest	ORD 07:21	MKE 08:25	14%	4%	2.0%	no record
OO 5838 SkyWest	ORD 06:07	MKE 06:56	14%	4%	1.9%	no record
MQ 4018 Envoy	ORD 10:12	MKE 10:57	19%	3%	1.3%	no record
UA 5234 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ORD 10:31	MKE 11:21	21%	6%	2.1%	77%
UA 5821 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ORD 09:06	MKE 09:56	21%	5%	2.2%	73%
OO 4909 SkyWest	ORD 19:04	MKE 19:54	23%	7%	2.4%	no record
OO 4990 SkyWest	ORD 11:43	MKE 12:33	23%	7%	2.3%	no record
UA 5555 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ORD 17:45	MKE 18:48	25%	8%	2.2%	52%
UA 5933 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ORD 13:30	MKE 14:36	25%	8%	3.7%	67%
MQ 4035 Envoy	ORD 13:18	MKE 14:03	27%	4%	1.8%	no record
UA 5668 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ORD 14:04	MKE 14:54	28%	7%	3.3%	66%
MQ 4096 Envoy	ORD 17:25	MKE 18:10	29%	5%	1.7%	no record
UA 5262 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ORD 16:45	MKE 17:35	30%	8%	2.3%	76%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON