Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 10 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: AA 4048 at 07:23 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 17–24%.

Safest bet that day AA 4048 ORD 07:23 → MSN 08:33 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 85% on time Riskiest OO 5679 ORD 18:13 → MSN 19:14 · 24% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


AA 4048 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ORD 07:23	MSN 08:33	9%	2%	1.4%	85%
AA 6256 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ORD 11:42	MSN 12:49	15%	6%	1.9%	74%
AA 4038 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ORD 14:05	MSN 15:14	15%	4%	2.1%	82%
AA 3953 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ORD 17:25	MSN 18:43	17%	5%	1.6%	73%
OO 4737 SkyWest	ORD 10:39	MSN 11:40	17%	6%	1.7%	no record
UA 2349 United	ORD 12:59	MSN 14:01	17%	6%	0.8%	no record
UA 1595 United	ORD 14:00	MSN 15:03	20%	8%	0.9%	no record
OO 5530 SkyWest	ORD 15:59	MSN 17:00	22%	9%	2.0%	no record
OO 5679 SkyWest	ORD 18:13	MSN 19:14	24%	10%	1.9%	no record
UA 4194 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	ORD 16:01	MSN 17:10	29%	10%	7.0%	71%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON