tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 12% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
UA 2847 United ORD 08:51 MSO 11:28 12% 4% 0.6% no record
MQ 3697 Envoy ORD 09:59 MSO 12:29 12% 3% 0.7% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Missoula on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Missoula is 1 h behind Chicago). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → ORD 06:00 → DEN 07:42UA 2806 3h 46m Denver DEN 11:28 → MSO 13:38UA 2357 8h 38m 100% 86%
AlaskaDetails → ORD 15:43 → SEA 18:22AS 407 2h 08m Seattle SEA 20:30 → MSO 22:55AS 2154 · flown by Horizon 8h 12m 93% 71%
AlaskaDetails → ORD 08:05 → SEA 10:24AS 583 2h 21m Seattle SEA 12:45 → MSO 15:07AS 660 8h 02m 94% 70%
UnitedDetails → ORD 06:10 → SFO 08:47UA 246 3h 28m San Francisco SFO 12:15 → MSO 15:38UA 5422 · flown by SkyWest 10h 28m 100% 63%
AlaskaDetails → ORD 13:01 → SEA 15:42AS 579 1h 12m Seattle SEA 16:54 → MSO 19:19AS 2123 · flown by Horizon 7h 18m 82% 57%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON