Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 17 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: UA 2232 at 07:00 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 23–29%.

Safest bet that day UA 2232 ORD 07:00 → MSP 08:41 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest AA 2472 ORD 15:59 → MSP 17:34 · 34% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2232 United Flight history →	ORD 07:00	MSP 08:41	7%	2%	0.6%	89%
DL 2028 Delta	ORD 06:18	MSP 07:45	8%	2%	0.7%	no record
AA 4162 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ORD 08:15	MSP 10:01	10%	3%	1.1%	91%
UA 2805 United Flight history →	ORD 08:50	MSP 10:36	11%	3%	0.6%	89%
DL 1567 Delta Flight history →	ORD 12:27	MSP 14:10	15%	4%	0.7%	67%
DL 724 Delta	ORD 08:32	MSP 10:00	15%	3%	0.7%	no record
UA 215 United Flight history →	ORD 10:34	MSP 12:07	17%	4%	0.6%	79%
MQ 3551 Envoy	ORD 08:22	MSP 09:48	19%	3%	1.0%	no record
UA 2298 United Flight history →	ORD 14:30	MSP 16:13	20%	7%	0.6%	74%
UA 467 United Flight history →	ORD 12:36	MSP 14:09	20%	5%	0.6%	70%
DL 1533 Delta Flight history →	ORD 15:55	MSP 17:40	20%	8%	0.9%	62%
AA 2448 American	ORD 11:50	MSP 13:25	23%	6%	0.6%	no record
MQ 4228 Envoy	ORD 15:04	MSP 16:30	23%	7%	1.2%	no record
DL 1306 Delta Flight history →	ORD 17:54	MSP 19:31	23%	8%	0.9%	51%
UA 1935 United Flight history →	ORD 16:00	MSP 17:32	28%	8%	0.6%	70%
UA 2865 United Flight history →	ORD 18:26	MSP 19:58	29%	9%	0.6%	54%
AA 2472 American	ORD 15:59	MSP 17:34	34%	12%	1.0%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON